Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

The contribution of volunteer recorders to our understanding of biological invasions

The process of invasion and the desire to predict the invasiveness (and associated impacts) of new arrivals has been a focus of attention for ecologists over centuries. The volunteer recording community has made unique and inspiring contributions to our understanding of invasion biology within Britain. Indeed information on non-native species (NNS) compiled within the GB Non-Native Species Information Portal (GB-NNSIP) would not have been possible without the involvement of volunteer experts from across Britain. Here we review examples of ways in which biological records have informed invasion biology. We specifically examine NNS information available within the GB-NNSIP to describe patterns in the arrival and establishment of NNS providing an overview of habitat associations of NNS in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Monitoring and surveillance of the subset of NNS that are considered to be adversely affecting biodiversity, society or the economy, termed invasive non-native species (INNS), is critical for early warning and rapid response. Volunteers are major contributors to monitoring and surveillance of INNS and not only provide records from across Britain but also underpin the system of verification necessary to confirm the identification of sightings. Here we describe the so-called ‘alert system’ which links volunteer experts with the wider recording community to provide early warning of INNS occurrence. We highlight the need to increase understanding of community and ecosystem-level effects of invasions and particularly understanding of ecological resilience. Detailed field observations, through biological recording, will provide the spatial, temporal and taxonomic breadth required for such research. The role of the volunteer recording community in contributing to the understanding of invasion biology has been invaluable and it is clear that their expertise and commitment will continue to be so. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015,